The start of 2026 delivered an immediate data point confirming what much of the firearms industry expected: suppressor demand is accelerating rapidly.

On Friday, the National Shooting Sports Foundation confirmed that ATF processed more than 150,000 eForms on January 1. On a normal day, ATF processes roughly 2,500. The spike followed the elimination of the $200 federal tax stamp on suppressors and short-barreled firearms, which officially took effect at the beginning of the year.

That response underscores how much the tax stamp, not demand, had been suppressing the market.

Tax Removal Triggers Demand Surge

Suppressor demand was already accelerating in the second half of 2025, with manufacturers and dealers absorbing the $200 tax to maintain sales ahead of the January deadline.

ATF approval times had improved prior to the change, reducing one of the major friction points in the NFA process.

The remaining question is capacity. With volume surging, the NFA Division’s ability to sustain current processing speeds is uncertain. The January 1 filing spike suggests the system is already being stress-tested.

A Market Still Early in Its Lifecycle

Suppressor ownership has grown steadily for more than a decade, but overall market penetration remains relatively low.

When the American Suppressor Association was formed in 2011, a total of 285,087 suppressors were registered nationwide since the passage of the National Firearms Act in 1934. According to ASA Executive Director Knox Williams, that number exceeded 4.4 million as of January 2025.

Final figures for 2025 have not yet been released, but Williams expects the total to exceed five million, depending on how buyers timed purchases around the tax repeal.

A National Shooting Sports Foundation study conducted by Southwick Associates found a 265% increase in suppressor Form 4 registrations from 2020 to 2024, with the total number of registered suppressors doubling over that period. The same study placed the 2024 suppressor market at $820 million, including $156 million in tax payments.

In 2024, 35% of suppressor buyers were first-time purchasers, a figure that reflects broader acceptance among ordinary gun owners rather than expansion limited to existing NFA consumers.

Infrastructure Was Built Years Ago

Legal access expanded first. Suppressors are now legal to own in 42 states and legal for hunting in 41, largely due to sustained state-level advocacy by organizations including ASA, NRA, and NSSF.

The purchasing process was followed. Companies such as Silencer Shop, Silencer Central, and Capital Armory standardized and simplified NFA paperwork submission, reducing friction for both dealers and consumers.

Approval delays remained a limiting factor for years. At their peak, wait times stretched well past a year. By 2023, average approval time had dropped to roughly nine months. Today, approvals measured in weeks are increasingly common.

Wait time is no longer a primary deterrent.

Firearms Were Ready Before the Market Was

Firearms manufacturers have spent years normalizing threaded barrels across pistols, rifles, and rimfire platforms. As a result, far more suppressor-ready firearms exist than suppressors in circulation.

Manufacturers were ahead of demand, and suppressors have shifted from optional accessories to practical additions for existing firearms.

Buck Steele, president of Anechoic, expects suppressor sales volume in 2026 to double compared to 2024 or 2025, with the strongest growth in entry-level models priced around $300, products previously burdened by a disproportionate federal tax.

Legal Pressure on the NFA Framework

With the $200 tax stamp reduced to zero, the National Firearms Act is facing a direct legal challenge, and the Silencer Shop Foundation is driving that effort.

For decades, the NFA survived constitutional scrutiny because courts treated it as a tax law. A tax that yields no revenue undermines that justification, leaving the NFA as a regulation without a clear constitutional basis.

The Silencer Shop Foundation is pursuing litigation that directly targets this weakness, challenging continued NFA enforcement of suppressors and short-barreled firearms. These cases are designed to force courts to address whether the NFA can stand without a legitimate taxing function.

While resolution will take time, a favorable ruling would fundamentally change suppressor ownership—reducing purchases to a standard Form 4473 and removing nearly a century of tax-based federal control.

What the Numbers Say

The January 1 eForm surge provides a clear signal. The $200 tax stamp functioned as a financial barrier to the lawful acquisition of a firearm accessory. Once removed, consumers acted immediately.

Suppressors are no longer limited by legality, infrastructure, or consumer interest. What remains is capacity, both industrial and administrative.

If early 2026 data holds, suppressors are moving from a specialized corner of the firearms market into routine ownership.

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